free cash flow - Ceta Research (Page 2)

Growth of $10,000 invested in Dividend Coverage US vs S&P 500 from 2000 to 2025. Coverage grew to $149K, S&P 500 to $66K.

dividend investing

Dividend Coverage: Screening for Cash-Backed Dividends on 25 Years of US Data

We screened US stocks for companies whose free cash flow comfortably covers dividend payments. 11.40% CAGR over 25 years vs 7.85% for the S&P 500. Zero cash periods.

Growth of $10,000 invested in FCF Conversion Quality vs SSE Composite on Chinese A-shares from 2000 to 2025. Strategy grew to ~$36K, SSE to ~$18K.

quality investing

FCF Conversion Quality on Chinese A-Shares: +2.83% Over SSE Composite in a Volatile Market

Chinese A-shares returned 5.26% CAGR, beating the SSE Composite (2.43%) by 2.83% annually. 60% win rate, 73.86% down capture, and zero cash periods. $10K grew to ~$36K vs ~$18K for the index. Volatile but FCF quality adds value.

Growth of $10,000 invested in FCF Conversion Quality vs DAX on German stocks from 2000 to 2025. Strategy grew to $85K, DAX to $34K.

quality investing

FCF Conversion Quality on German Stocks: +3.89% Alpha vs DAX Over 25 Years on XETRA

We screened XETRA for FCF conversion quality from 2000-2025. 8.93% CAGR vs 5.04% for the DAX with zero cash periods in 25 years. $10K grew to $85K vs $34K for the index. 60% win rate, 39% down capture.

Growth of $10,000 invested in FCF Conversion Quality vs Hang Seng on Hong Kong stocks from 2000 to 2025. Strategy grew to $43K, Hang Seng to $15K.

quality investing

FCF Conversion Quality on Hong Kong Stocks: +4.36% Alpha vs the Hang Seng Over 25 Years

Hong Kong FCF conversion quality returned 6.0% CAGR vs 1.64% for the Hang Seng over 25 years. +4.36% annual excess. 68% win rate. The alpha comes from stock selection, not crash protection: down capture is 70%.

Growth of $10,000 invested in FCF Conversion Quality vs SMI on Swiss stocks from 2000 to 2025. Strategy grew to ~$70K, SMI to ~$15K.

quality investing

FCF Conversion Quality on Swiss Stocks: +6.35% Over SMI with 80% Win Rate

Switzerland produced +6.35% excess CAGR over the SMI, the widest gap of any exchange we tested. 8.09% CAGR, 80% win rate, 31% down capture. $10K grew to ~$70K vs ~$15K for the SMI. Quality multinationals convert earnings to cash with less noise than any other market.

Growth of $10,000 invested in FCF Conversion Quality vs S&P 500 on US stocks from 2000 to 2025. Strategy grew to $101K, SPY to $66K.

quality investing

FCF Conversion Quality: 25 Years of Separating Real Earnings from Accounting Fiction on US Stocks

We built a quality screen based on free cash flow conversion and backtested it on US stocks from 2000-2025. 9.68% CAGR vs 7.85% for SPY. The real story is downside protection. 51% down capture.

CAGR comparison of FCF Compounders strategy across global exchanges from 2000 to 2025. US leads at 11.39%, followed by Germany at 9.0%.

quality investing

FCF Compounders Across 5 Exchanges: A Strict Filter Reveals Where Quality Cash Growth Exists

We ran the FCF Compounders screen on 18 exchanges from 2000-2025 with local benchmarks. US led at 11.39% CAGR (+3.54% vs S&P 500), zero cash. Germany +3.96% vs DAX. India trails Sensex by 6.16% annually. Only deep markets work.

Growth of $10,000 invested in FCF Compounders vs DAX on German stocks from 2000 to 2025. Strategy grew to $86K, DAX to $34K.

quality investing

FCF Compounders on German Stocks: Quality Cash Growth on XETRA for 25 Years

We screened XETRA for FCF compounders from 2000-2025. 9.0% CAGR vs 5.04% for the DAX with 22 invested years out of 25. Germany's industrial cash discipline beats the local benchmark by 3.96% annually.

Growth of $10,000 invested in FCF Compounders vs FTSE 100 on UK stocks from 2000 to 2025. Strategy grew to $69K, FTSE to $14K.

quality investing

FCF Compounders on UK Stocks: +6.82% Annual Excess vs FTSE 100 Over 25 Years

FCF Compounders screen on LSE from 2000-2025. 8.04% CAGR vs 1.23% for the FTSE 100. The filter was invested in only 13 of 25 years, but when it fired, it beat the benchmark by an average of 15% per year.

Growth of $10,000 invested in FCF Compounders vs S&P 500 on US stocks from 2000 to 2025. Strategy grew to $148K, SPY to $66K.

quality investing

FCF Compounders: 25 Years of Buying Companies That Grow Cash Every Year on US Stocks

We screened for companies that grew FCF in 4+ of the last 5 years with ROIC above 15% and backtested on US stocks from 2000-2025. 11.39% CAGR vs 7.85% for SPY. Zero cash periods, 64% win rate, 68.1% down capture.

Growth of $10,000 invested in Dividend Sustainability US vs S&P 500 from 2000 to 2025. Sustainability grew to $171K, S&P 500 to $66K.

dividend investing

Dividend Sustainability Score: A 5-Factor Screen on 25 Years of US Stock Data

We built a 5-component sustainability score combining payout ratio, debt/equity, FCF coverage, ROE, and Piotroski F-Score. 12.03% CAGR over 25 years vs 7.85% for the S&P 500. Down capture of 12.9%.

Growth of $10,000 invested in Dividend Coverage Germany (XETRA) vs S&P 500 from 2000 to 2025.

dividend investing

Dividend Coverage on German Stocks: 12.52% CAGR, 7.48% Annual Alpha vs DAX

Dividend coverage on XETRA: 12.52% CAGR over 25 years, 7.48% annual alpha vs the DAX. Best Sharpe ratio (0.496) of any exchange tested. Zero cash periods across 25 rebalances.