Building CetaResearch. Data analysis for policy, research, and startups.
value investing
A quality-filtered P/S value screen on NSE returned 12.27% CAGR from 2000 to 2025, against a Sensex that returned 11.12%. The strategy beats the local index by 1.15 percentage points. India's market itself rose strongly. The screen adds a modest, real edge on top.
low volatility
Low-vol quality stocks on NSE returned 16.89% CAGR with a 0.579 Sharpe ratio from 2000 to 2025. That is +5.8% annualized over the Sensex with 86.3% up capture and 37.1% down capture. $10,000 grew to roughly $556,000.
low volatility
Low-vol quality stocks on the JPX returned 6.38% CAGR vs the Nikkei 225's 3.40% from 2000 to 2025. 0.398 Sharpe, 4.42% alpha, 58.25% win rate. Max drawdown of -42.16%. The strategy sat in cash for 14% of quarters due to late Japanese financial filings. Down capture of 43.22%.
low volatility
We backtested low-vol quality on the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TAI) from 2000 to 2025. It returned 6.68% CAGR with a 0.424 Sharpe, beating the TAIEX by +2.30% annually. Down capture 29% and beta 0.314 in a market dominated by TSMC and semiconductors. The boring-stock premium beats the local index.
low volatility
We backtested a low-volatility quality screen on US stocks (NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX) from 2000 to 2025. It delivered 6.53% CAGR with a 0.484 Sharpe vs 0.361 for the S&P 500, a -26.0% max drawdown vs -43.9%, and captured only 27% of market downside. Boring stocks, better risk-adjusted returns.
UK
Testing capital efficiency on the LSE: low-capex, high-ROIC UK companies delivered 9.34% CAGR from 2000-2025, beating the FTSE 100 (1.23% CAGR) by 8.12%/year. The widest excess of any market tested.
low volatility
Low-vol quality stocks on the TSX returned 9.68% CAGR, beating the TSX Composite by +4.60% annually from 2000 to 2025. 0.645 Sharpe ratio, down capture of 39.2%, max drawdown -29.70% vs -41.58%.
low volatility
Low-vol quality on the SIX Swiss Exchange returned 5.07% CAGR with a 0.342 Sharpe from 2000 to 2025, beating the SMI by +2.96% annually at 13.34% volatility. Switzerland's defensive market produced 257% total returns with a -46.62% max drawdown, and rarely sits in cash.
low volatility
Low-vol quality stocks on the LSE returned 7.34% CAGR, beating the FTSE 100 by +5.99% annually from 2000 to 2025. Down capture of 42.77%, max drawdown -22.63% vs -43.69% for FTSE 100. Zero cash periods across 103 quarters.
low volatility
We tested low-vol quality on 14 exchanges with the same screen: ROE > 10%, OPM > 10%, lowest 252-day volatility. Measured against local benchmarks, it beats the home market in 11 of 14 exchanges. China leads at +7.1% over the SSE Composite, India +5.8% over the Sensex. US and Germany trail.
sector rotation
Sector mean reversion on SET large caps from 2000 to 2025: 8.85% CAGR against the SET Index's 3.69%, a +5.15% annual excess with 70.85% down capture. It also beats the index on drawdown, -42.36% against -48.10%. Small universe at 26 average stocks, 6 cash periods of 104.
backtests
Japan produced strong results in our Graham Number backtest: 11.63% CAGR vs 2.95% for the Nikkei 225 over 25 years. +8.68% annual excess, 80% win rate, and 15.2% down capture vs the local index. Deep structural cheapness, Abenomics tailwinds, and TSE governance reforms all show up in the data.