event study
6,348 KOSPI earnings events from 2016-2025. Pre-earnings drift averages +0.745% vs KOSPI in 10 days before announcements. Both habitual missers (+0.593%) and mixed stocks (+0.772%) show the same drift. Beat rate doesn't matter in Korea.
event study
155,684 US earnings events from 2000-2025. Habitual beaters drift +0.289% vs S&P 500 in 10 days before announcements. Habitual missers fall -0.321%. The spread between best and worst beat-rate quintiles is 44bp.
analyst ratings
We reported that German stocks drift +1.63% above the DAX after analyst upgrades. Then we checked the universe: only 1.5% of the events were German companies. 88% were US mega-caps' Frankfurt listings scored against a German index, and they drifted up after downgrades too. This is the correction.
analyst ratings
We ran an event study on 61,410 analyst upgrades on US stocks, 2012 to 2025. The move happens on announcement day. What survives needs no benchmark: one month on, stocks upgraded by two or more firms are up 1.82% against 1.05% for single-analyst upgrades. A 0.77 point gap.
analyst ratings
We measured 180,658 analyst revisions across five markets and found European upgrade drift that looked strong. It was foreign secondary listings scored against a local index: XETRA is 88% US-domiciled, the LSE 86%. The tell was that downgraded stocks also beat the index.
analyst ratings
We reported +1.09% upgrade drift against the FTSE 100 on LSE stocks. Then we checked the universe: 85.7% of the events are US-domiciled companies and only 6.2% are British. For UK companies the one-month drift is 0.008%, which is zero. This is the correction.
earnings surprise
We tested 161,243 US earnings announcements from 2000 to 2025 and entered at the next day's close. The beat-side drift vanishes, and only the miss side survives (Q1 -1.46%). Q5-Q1 spread: +1.42%.
earnings surprise
India has the strongest beat-side earnings drift we found. Positive surprises produce +2.78% CAR at T+63 vs Sensex, and it survives a next-day entry. Q5 biggest beats reach +3.83%. Q5-Q1 spread: +4.08%.
earnings surprise
Canada looks like a beat market until you strip the baseline. Near-consensus TSX stocks drift +1.51% vs the index, so beats add almost nothing and the real signal is the miss side (Q1 -1.79% net). Q5-Q1 spread: +1.89%.
earnings surprise
Japan PEAD looks strong until you enter a day late. The Q5-Q1 spread drops to +0.82%, the weakest major market. Biggest beats show no significant drift, and misses hold up vs near-consensus. It was mostly the announcement day.
earnings surprise
China has the lowest beat rate of any exchange we tested: 34.8%. But when Chinese companies beat, the drift survives a next-day entry: Q5 +2.58% at T+63, or +1.46% net of baseline. Q5-Q1 spread: +2.33%.
earnings surprise
Taiwan has the widest earnings-surprise spread in our study: +4.52% at T+63 vs the TAIEX, now the largest after the correction. Both sides survive. Worst misses -3.08% (-2.69% net), biggest beats +1.45%.