event study
Pre-earnings drift across 13 markets with local currency benchmarks. Korea leads at +0.745% vs KOSPI, India +0.693% vs Sensex (NSE). Japan's effect disappeared vs Nikkei. Taiwan flipped from negative to positive. Benchmark choice matters.
event study
6,348 KOSPI earnings events from 2016-2025. Pre-earnings drift averages +0.745% vs KOSPI in 10 days before announcements. Both habitual missers (+0.593%) and mixed stocks (+0.772%) show the same drift. Beat rate doesn't matter in Korea.
analyst ratings
We measured 9,116 analyst upgrades on LSE-listed UK stocks from 2012 to 2025. Upgrades produce sustained drift through three months: +0.48% at one month and +1.09% vs FTSE 100 at three months. Clustered upgrades reach +1.74% at T+63. UK downgrades recover rather than persist, opposite to the US...
analyst ratings
We ran an event study on 66,741 analyst upgrades on US stocks from 2012 to 2025. The upgrade move happens on announcement day. You can't capture it. By the next close, average upgrades produce -0.18% at one month. Clustered upgrades (2+ firms in 30 days) still drift +0.27% at T+21. Single...
analyst ratings
We measured 12,835 analyst upgrades on XETRA-listed German stocks from 2012 to 2025. Unlike the US where drift disappears by next-day entry, German upgrades keep running, reaching +0.78% vs DAX at one month and +1.63% at three months. Clustered upgrades reach +2.17% at T+63. Downgrades fully...
analyst ratings
We measured 136,479 analyst rating revision events across US, Germany, UK, Switzerland, and Canada from 2012 to 2025 using next-day-close entry. The US is the only market where upgrades underperform after the announcement day (-0.18% at T+21). Germany, UK, and Switzerland show sustained drift....
earnings surprise
We tested 161,243 US earnings announcements from 2000 to 2025 and entered at the next day's close. The beat-side drift vanishes, and only the miss side survives (Q1 -1.46%). Q5-Q1 spread: +1.42%.
earnings surprise
India has the strongest beat-side earnings drift we found. Positive surprises produce +2.78% CAR at T+63 vs Sensex, and it survives a next-day entry. Q5 biggest beats reach +3.83%. Q5-Q1 spread: +4.08%.
earnings surprise
Canada looks like a beat market until you strip the baseline. Near-consensus TSX stocks drift +1.51% vs the index, so beats add almost nothing and the real signal is the miss side (Q1 -1.79% net). Q5-Q1 spread: +1.89%.
earnings surprise
Japan PEAD looks strong until you enter a day late. The Q5-Q1 spread drops to +0.82%, the weakest major market. Biggest beats show no significant drift, and misses hold up vs near-consensus. It was mostly the announcement day.
earnings surprise
China has the lowest beat rate of any exchange we tested: 34.8%. But when Chinese companies beat, the drift survives a next-day entry: Q5 +2.58% at T+63, or +1.46% net of baseline. Q5-Q1 spread: +2.33%.
earnings surprise
Taiwan has the widest earnings-surprise spread in our study: +4.52% at T+63 vs the TAIEX, now the largest after the correction. Both sides survive. Worst misses -3.08% (-2.69% net), biggest beats +1.45%.