UK - Ceta Research

small cap

Small-Cap Value on UK Stocks: 0.750 Sharpe, the Best Risk-Adjusted Result Globally

We backtested small-cap value on LSE from 2000 to 2025. 15.44% CAGR with a max drawdown of just -10.89%. 0.750 Sharpe ratio, +14.21% excess over the FTSE 100. The best risk-adjusted result of any exchange in our 14-market comparison.

working capital

Working Capital Efficiency in the UK: 6.2% CAGR vs the FTSE 100's 1.1% Over 25 Years

The UK produced strong excess returns for working capital efficiency. 6.17% CAGR vs 1.13% for the FTSE 100. +5.04% annual excess and a 68% win rate over 25 years.

Growth of $10,000 invested in capital-efficient UK stocks (LSE) vs FTSE 100, 2000-2025

UK

Capital Efficiency in the UK: 9.34% CAGR, +8.12% vs FTSE 100

Testing capital efficiency on the LSE: low-capex, high-ROIC UK companies delivered 9.34% CAGR from 2000-2025, beating the FTSE 100 (1.23% CAGR) by 8.12%/year. The widest excess of any market tested.

Capital Efficiency CAGR comparison across India, Switzerland, UK, US, Germany, and China markets

Multi-Market

Capital Efficiency Across Markets: A Six-Market Study

Testing capital efficiency across 6 major markets (2000-2025): India +6.96% vs Sensex, Switzerland +7.13% vs SMI, UK +8.12% vs FTSE, Germany +3.52% vs DAX, US +2.54% vs SPY, China -0.64% vs SSE. How low-capex, high-ROIC strategies travel across markets.

Growth of $10,000 invested in OCF Momentum UK vs S&P 500

Cash Flow

UK: Essentially Matched the S&P 500 Over 25 Years

OCF momentum returned 7.7% annually on UK stocks, essentially matching SPY's 7.8%. Extreme volatility (+66% best year, -27% worst) with no alpha. Developed market reality check.

Growth of $1 invested in dividend growth screen on UK stocks (LSE) vs FTSE 100 from 2000 to 2025.

dividend investing

Dividend Growth on UK Stocks: +6.68% Over FTSE 100 With 84% Win Rate

We ran a dividend growth screen on UK stocks (LSE). 7.91% CAGR, +6.68% excess over FTSE 100, 84% win rate. 0% cash periods across 25 years. Down capture of 19.85%. The deepest dividend culture globally.

CAR after analyst upgrades on LSE UK stocks vs FTSE 100. Clustered upgrades reach +1.74% at T+63. Single upgrades drift to +0.64%. Downgrades recover to near zero.

analyst ratings

Analyst Upgrades on UK Stocks: +1.09% vs FTSE 100 at 3 Months (9,116 Events)

We measured 9,116 analyst upgrades on LSE-listed UK stocks from 2012 to 2025. Upgrades produce sustained drift through three months: +0.48% at one month and +1.09% vs FTSE 100 at three months. Clustered upgrades reach +1.74% at T+63. UK downgrades recover rather than persist, opposite to the US...

earnings surprise

Earnings Surprise Drift in the UK: Both Sides Active, Miss Side Leads

UK earnings beats produce +1.13% CAR at T+63 vs FTSE 100. Q5 biggest beats reach +1.83%. Misses produce -1.01%. The Q5-Q1 spread (+3.19%) has contributions from both sides.

DCF Threshold strategy cumulative growth vs S&P 500, UK LSE 2000–2025.

DCF

DCF Threshold in the UK: 9.10% CAGR Over 21 Invested Years of LSE Data

We ran a Gordon Growth DCF screen with quality filters on 25 years of London Stock Exchange data. No qualifying stocks 2000–2003. From 2004, 9.10% CAGR vs 7.64% SPY, with strong recovery years in 2006, 2009, 2012, and 2021 — and a -36% annual gap in 2014 driven by the energy sector collapse.