backtests
Cyclical Sector Timing in India: +4.55% Annual Excess Over 24 Years India is the only dedicated market in our 15-exchange cyclical timing study with sustained outperformance. Contents 1. Method 2. Why India Is Different 3. What We Found 4. Key Periods 5. Full Annual Returns 6. Limitations We ran
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Cyclical Sector Timing in Germany: Best Risk-Adjusted Results in Developed Markets Germany produced the best risk-adjusted cyclical timing result among developed Western markets. Contents 1. Method 2. Results 3. Key Periods 4. Full Annual Returns 5. Limitations The XETRA backtest (2001-2024) returned 8.48% annually, just 0.41% below SPY&
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Cyclical Sector Timing in Canada: A Paradox in the Data Canada has the lowest down capture of any market in the study. 28.4%. When global markets fall, this Canadian cyclical portfolio loses less than any other exchange we tested, including defensive markets. Contents 1. Method 2. Results 3. Why
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Cyclical Sector Timing in Australia: Resources Drive the Signal Australia is the most commodity-concentrated economy in our 15-exchange study. Basic Materials and Energy dominate the ASX cyclical universe. Iron ore, coal, gold, and oil companies make up a substantial portion of the investable universe. When commodity prices surge, Australian cyclical
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Contents 1. The Strategy 2. Results: All 13 Exchanges 3. What the Pattern Shows 4. Why India Works and Others Don't 5. Japan and UK: Notable Markets 6. Exchanges Excluded 7. Run It Yourself 8. Limitations We ran the same strategy on 13 stock exchanges: take the top
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Contents 1. The Strategy 2. Methodology 3. Results 4. What the Pattern Shows 5. Why the Alpha Disappeared 6. Run It Yourself 7. Limitations Revenue leaders have structural advantages. They set prices, not take them. They have scale that compounds. Their access to capital is cheaper than everyone else'
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Contents 1. The Strategy 2. Methodology 3. Results 4. What Drives the Outperformance 5. Why India Works Where the US Doesn't 6. Run It Yourself 7. Limitations The same strategy that nearly matched SPY on US stocks delivered a genuine edge in India. The logic is identical: hold
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In 2008, the global financial system nearly collapsed. SPY fell -34.31%. Japan's sector momentum portfolio fell -11.9%. That +22.4% relative return in the worst year of the century tells you most of what you need to know about how this strategy behaves in Japanese markets.
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India produced the highest absolute CAGR of any exchange in our 14-market sector momentum study. 26.95% annually over 26 years. $10,000 grew to nearly $5 million in INR-denominated terms. No other market in the dataset came close. Contents 1. The Strategy 2. What We Found 3. Sector Rotation
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Germany delivered the best sector momentum results of any European market in our 14-exchange study. 13.07% CAGR over 26 years. $10,000 grew to €243,629 in EUR-denominated terms versus $74,347 for SPY. The 2008 global financial crisis tells a lot about why: the portfolio returned -21.68%
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Canada delivered the third-best excess return in our 14-exchange sector momentum study. +10.23% annually over 26 years, behind only India and Korea. Nobody writes about Canadian sector momentum. They should. Contents 1. The Strategy 2. What We Found 3. Why Canada Works 4. When It Worked and When It
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Contents 1. What We Tested 2. Full Results Table 3. The Pattern 4. Notable Observations 5. Run a Global Screen Yourself 6. Limitations The yield gap strategy, buy stocks where earnings yields exceed government bond rates, filter for quality, has an intuitive theoretical foundation. Stocks offering a wide spread over