backtests
We ran the same cyclical timing signal across 15 exchanges over 24 years. India: +4.55% annual excess. China: -17.97% annual excess. Germany and Sweden also positive. The same revenue growth signal produced opposite outcomes in markets with different economic structures.
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Canada has the lowest down capture of any market in our 15-exchange study (28.4%). But overall CAGR is weak at 5.78% (-3.11% excess). Energy sector concentration creates boom-bust dynamics that the revenue growth signal times but can't fully escape.
backtests
ASX cyclical timing returned 7.45% CAGR (-1.45% excess) over 24 years. Australia's resources-heavy economy ties cyclical signals closely to commodity prices. 2005-2006: supercycle surge (+35.8%, +33.1%). 2021: worst year (-21.3%). Modest underperformance but reliable signal quality.
backtests
Switzerland tied for highest Sharpe ratio in our cyclical timing study (0.415), despite 7.46% CAGR (-1.43% excess). Six cash periods (25%), but strong returns when invested. Swiss precision machinery and specialty chemicals created consistent signal quality.
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We tested buying S&P 500 sectors when their aggregate P/E falls 1+ standard deviation below the 5-year average. 12.70% CAGR vs 10.65% SPY over 21 years, with 67.6% down-capture ratio. Full methodology and SQL included.
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The UK produced the lowest max drawdown of any dedicated market in our cyclical timing study (-28.54%). 7.94% CAGR (-0.95% excess), Sharpe 0.277. Five cash periods including three consecutive (2014, 2015, 2017) suppressed returns but limited losses.
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Sweden is one of two dedicated markets in our study with positive excess returns. 9.67% CAGR (+0.78% excess), Sharpe 0.344, high variance. The Swedish industrial economy fires the expansion signal less often but delivers strong results when invested.
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Germany produced the best risk-adjusted cyclical timing result among developed markets. 8.48% CAGR (-0.41% excess), Sharpe 0.411, max drawdown -35.07%. German industrials and materials provided stable expansion signals across 24 years.
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India is the only dedicated market in our 15-exchange cyclical timing study with sustained outperformance. 13.44% CAGR, +4.55% excess vs S&P 500, and a -0.6% down capture that made this strategy counter-cyclical in Indian markets.
backtests
We tested a 24-year strategy that invests in US cyclical stocks only when the sector is expanding (50%+ of companies with positive revenue growth). 8.04% CAGR, 34.3% down capture, and three cash calls that avoided major drawdowns. Full methodology and SQL included.
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We tested Benjamin Graham's intrinsic value formula across 14 global exchanges. 8 of 14 beat SPY. Winners: developed value markets (Sweden +4.97%, US +4.39%) and emerging markets (India +5.43%). Losers: high-growth Asia (Taiwan -3.13%).
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We tested Graham Number timing on Indian stocks (BSE+NSE). 13.44% CAGR vs 8.01% SPY, +5.43% excess (best globally). 57.1% down-capture with 122.5% up-capture. Value investing asymmetry in emerging markets.