ETF - Ceta Research

CAGR comparison of low-concentration quality stocks across 16 global exchanges vs local benchmarks.

ETF

ETF Concentration Tested Across 16 Global Exchanges: Fails Where ETFs Are Deepest

We tested low-concentration quality stocks on multiple global exchanges from 2005 to 2025. South Africa was the only exchange that beat SPY (12.09% vs 10.61%). Norway came closest with the best Sharpe ratio (0.373). Look-ahead bias from snapshot ETF data limits all results.

Cumulative growth of low-concentration quality stocks vs S&P 500 in the US market.

ETF

Your 500-Stock ETF Is Really a 50-Stock Bet: Measuring Hidden ETF Concentration With SQL

The S&P 500 holds 500 stocks. The top 10 account for 39%+ of the portfolio. We measured the effective number of stocks in 2,000+ ETFs using the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index. SPY behaves like a 50-stock portfolio, not 500.

Cumulative growth of low-concentration quality stocks on the Oslo Stock Exchange vs S&P 500.

ETF

Low-Concentration Quality Stocks in Norway: Best Risk-Adjusted Result in the Series

Norway produced the best risk-adjusted result in our ETF concentration series. 9.45% CAGR vs 10.61% for SPY, but with a 0.373 Sharpe ratio, 0.712 Sortino, and near-identical max drawdown. The 2013-2018 run delivered six straight years of outperformance.

Cumulative growth of low-concentration quality stocks on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange vs S&P 500.

ETF

Low-Concentration Quality Stocks on the JSE: Close to Flat After Execution Correction

South Africa is the only exchange where low-concentration quality stocks beat SPY. 12.09% CAGR vs 10.61% over 2005-2025, with a 0.470 beta and +2.33% alpha. Most of the excess came from 2005-2012. The signal weakened after 2015.