value investing
We previously published a DCF discount backtest for Australian stocks reporting 6.08% CAGR. The result was partly an artifact of broken split-adjusted prices in our upstream FMP data (314 ASX symbols affected). We retract the original number and explain why.
value investing
We previously published a DCF discount backtest for Brazilian stocks reporting 18.05% CAGR. The headline was substantially inflated by broken split-adjusted prices in our upstream FMP data. We retract the original number and explain why.
value investing
We screened every US stock for discount to intrinsic value using a Gordon Growth Model and backtested from 2000 to 2025. The strategy returned 7.91% CAGR vs 7.33% for SPY, +0.58% annual excess. A thin edge with deeper drawdowns and worse risk-adjusted returns than the index.
value investing
We backtested Greenblatt's Magic Formula on the Jakarta Stock Exchange from 2000 to 2025. With a proper IDR 5T market cap threshold (~$310M USD), the strategy returned 7.71% annually, roughly matching SPY. An earlier analysis using IDR 1B (~$65K USD) showed 19.58% CAGR, but that was micro-cap noise.
value investing
We backtested Greenblatt's Magic Formula on NSE stocks from 2000 to 2025. The strategy returned 17.14% annually vs 11.12% for the Sensex. $10,000 became $587K. Both returns in INR, so the 6.0% excess is a clean same-currency comparison.
stock splits
We analyzed 1,968 forward stock splits on US exchanges from 2000 to 2025. The post-split drift has disappeared in aggregate. But the split ratio tells the real story: 2-for-1 splits still outperform (+2.6%), while 5-for-1+ splits underperform by -11.7%.
value investing
The Magic Formula returned 19.67% annually on B3-listed Brazilian stocks from 2000 to 2025. That's 10.72% annual excess return over the Bovespa. Only 1 cash period out of 103.
value investing
We backtested Greenblatt's Magic Formula on all US exchanges from 2000 to 2025 with next-day execution. The strategy returned 9.26% annually vs 8.02% for the S&P 500. Most of the alpha came from 2000-2013.
value investing
We ran the same two-factor ranking system on 20 global exchanges with local benchmarks. 13 of 20 exchanges beat their local index. India led at +13.12% vs Sensex, Brazil at +10.72% vs Bovespa, UK at +8.02% vs FTSE 100. Sweden (+4.96% vs OMX), Germany, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Korea all show...
dividend investing
The Dogs of the Dow adapted for Sweden. Take the 30 largest STO stocks, buy the 10 highest-yielding. 9.7% CAGR over 25 years, +6.8% excess over the OMX Stockholm 30, 68% win rate against the local benchmark.
dividend investing
The Dogs of the Dow adapted for India. Take the 30 largest BSE stocks by market cap, buy the 10 highest-yielding. Over 25 years, this returned 14.6% annually, beating the Sensex by 3.2% with a 60% win rate.
dividend investing
We tested the Dogs of the Dow strategy on 13 global exchanges from 2000 to 2025. The strategy beat the S&P 500 in 6 of 13 markets. India and Sweden stood out. Japan beat the Nikkei but trailed SPY.