event-study
We ran an event study on 2,064 M&A announcements from 2000-2025. Acquirers gained +0.28% at T+1 (t=3.27) and +0.44% at T+5 (t=2.71). The acquirer curse is not in this data. Target T+63 underperformance is a survivorship artifact, not a prediction.
event-study
16,497 earnings events on the Taiwan Stock Exchange (2000-2025). Misses drift -1.60% vs TAIEX at T+63 (t=-9.30). Q1 worst misses drop -2.89%. Q5-Q1 spread: +4.37pp, 2nd highest globally. Beats: +0.89% (t=+4.27). Next-day close entry.
event-study
20,319 earnings events across Shenzhen and Shanghai (2000-2025). Beats drift +1.78% vs SSE Composite at T+63 (t=+8.18). Misses drift +0.74% (t=+4.67, also significant). Both sides positive. Q5-Q1 spread: +2.03pp. Next-day close entry.
event-study
Indian stocks drift +2.89% vs the Sensex after positive earnings surprises over 63 trading days (next-day close entry). Q5-Q1 spread: +5.17pp. In a world where US beats show no post-entry drift, India's signal is the strongest globally.
event-study
PEAD event study on 16 exchanges with MOC entry and local benchmarks. Q5-Q1 positive on 15 of 16. India leads at +5.17pp. US beats don't drift post-entry (-0.40%). Emerging markets show real drift. Developed markets don't.
event-study
20,168 earnings events on the TSX (2000-2025). Beats drift +1.13% vs TSX Composite at T+63 (t=+6.98). Misses drift -0.34% (t=-1.87, not significant). Q5-Q1 spread: +2.44pp. Next-day close entry.
event-study
With MOC entry and the Nikkei as benchmark, Japan's beat drift vanishes (-0.26%, not significant). Misses still decline -0.86% (t=-5.35). Q5-Q1: +1.20pp. The relative signal survives, but the tradeable edge is miss-avoidance.
event-study
We analyzed 165,723 earnings events from 2000-2025 on NYSE/NASDAQ/AMEX with next-day close entry. Beats drift -0.40% vs SPY at T+63. Misses decline -0.95%. Q5-Q1 spread: +1.18pp. The announcement-day reaction is the bulk of PEAD. Post-entry, the US signal is a miss-avoidance tool.
event-study
We measured every S&P 500 addition and removal from 2000-2025. Additions underperform SPY by -0.98% in the first week. Removals average +7.22% but the median is +0.73%. Here's what the gap means.
event-study
Stocks removed from the NASDAQ-100 average +5.13% vs QQQ in the 21 days after removal (t=3.29, median +2.61%). 25 years of data, 169 removal events. Here's the methodology and the screen.
stock splits
We analyzed 1,968 forward stock splits on US exchanges from 2000 to 2025. The post-split drift has disappeared in aggregate. But the split ratio tells the real story: 2-for-1 splits still outperform (+2.6%), while 5-for-1+ splits underperform by -11.7%.
backtests
Out of 22 exchanges we tested the Net Debt/EBITDA screen across, Sweden's Stockholm Stock Exchange produced the best result among developed markets: 10.36% CAGR, +7.18% above the OMX Stockholm 30 annually, Sharpe ratio 0.414. The signal works in Sweden because the exchange has an