global stocks
Deleveraging Tested on 13 Markets: Only 2 Beat SPY
D/E reduction + ROE > 8% tested on 13 exchanges from 2001-2025. Only India (+4.39%) and Canada (+1.32%) beat SPY. US -4.23%, HK -8.85%. The signal is regime-dependent, not universal.
Swas
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debt reduction
Deleveraging as a US Stock Signal: A Regime-Dependent Strategy That Stopped Working in 2013
We backtested D/E reduction with ROE > 8% on US stocks from 2001-2025. 3.78% CAGR vs 8.01% for SPY. Pre-2013 it averaged +2.7% excess per year. Post-2013 it averaged -9.8%. The signal didn't fail — it became regime-dependent when ZIRP made leverage cheap.
india stocks
India Is the Exception: Deleveraging Earns +4.39% Annual Excess on BSE+NSE
The same D/E reduction + ROE > 8% screen that fails in the US adds 4.39% annually in India. CAGR 12.40%, down capture 40.66%, total return 1,927%. The signal works here because balance sheet discipline is genuinely scarce in India's growth economy.
value-investing
Price-to-Book on Brazilian Stocks: 16.12% CAGR, Highest Alpha in 18 Markets
Brazil's B3 returned 16.12% CAGR on a low P/B screen over 25 years. 8.47% annual alpha over the S&P 500, the highest across all 18 exchanges tested. Down capture of just 7.5%. Returns in BRL; currency adjustment reduces but doesn't eliminate the alpha.
value-investing
Price-to-Book in Canada: 9.72% CAGR, 8% Down Capture, 25 Years on TSX
Canada's TSX delivered 9.72% CAGR on a low P/B screen from 2000 to 2025. That's 2.08% annual excess return over the S&P 500. The number that stands out more is down capture: 8.02%. When the S&P 500 fell
backtests
Low Debt + Financial Health: Results Across 13 Global Exchanges
We ran a low-debt + Piotroski F-Score screen on 13 exchanges over 25 years. India leads at 14.05% CAGR with -2.02% down capture. Canada is the biggest surprise. Switzerland has the best Sharpe. Here''s the full global breakdown.
value investing
Low Debt Quality on US Stocks: Downside Protection Tested Over 25 Years
We screened NYSE, NASDAQ, and AMEX for D/E < 0.5 and Piotroski F-Score >= 7, then held the portfolio annually for 25 years. The result: 7.09% CAGR vs 7.83% for SPY, with max drawdown of -29.77% vs -36.27%. Lower return, but meaningfully better downside protection.
quality investing
Low Debt Quality on UK Stocks (LSE): 6.14% CAGR Over 25 Years
D/E < 0.5 and Piotroski F-Score >= 7 on LSE stocks across 25 years. 6.14% CAGR vs 7.83% SPY. Down capture of 96.58% — near zero protection. 2016 Brexit rally (+31.4%) was the standout. 0 cash periods, 61 avg stocks.
quality investing
Low Debt Quality on Thailand Stocks (SET): Exceptional Crash Protection, Weak Compounding
D/E < 0.5 + Piotroski F-Score >= 7 on SET-listed stocks, backtested 2000-2025. 3.30% CAGR vs 7.83% SPY. Down capture of 26.48% is the lowest in the global study. Up capture of 44.25% prevents that from translating into returns. Seven cash periods and a 25-stock average universe limit compounding.
quality investing
Low Debt Quality Stocks: Switzerland (SIX) — 25-Year Backtest
D/E < 0.5 + Piotroski F-Score >= 7 on the SIX Swiss Exchange produced the highest Sharpe ratio of any market tested (0.429), 8.14% CAGR, 69.27% down capture, and zero cash periods across 25 years.
quality investing
Low Debt Quality Stocks: Sweden (STO) — 25-Year Backtest
D/E < 0.5 + Piotroski F-Score >= 7 on the Stockholm exchange returned 8.97% CAGR vs 7.83% for SPY, with 106.29% up capture and 7 protective cash periods. A thin but effective universe of 22 stocks.
quality investing
Low Debt Quality on Japanese Stocks (JPX): 6.00% CAGR Over 25 Years
D/E < 0.5 and Piotroski F-Score >= 7 on JPX stocks across 25 years. 6.00% CAGR vs 7.83% SPY. 112 avg qualifying stocks, 75.1% down capture. Abenomics drove +47.4% in 2012 and +38.9% in 2014. Japan's deflation era cost the strategy its 25-year edge.