earnings - Ceta Research (Page 2)

earnings

Beat Earnings, Stock Still Drops 5%: What Happens Next in 12 Markets

We ran a beat-and-dip event study on 12 exchanges. The question: when a company beats earnings estimates but the stock sells off 5% or more anyway, does it recover? In 10 of 12 markets, the answer is no. The sell-off either persists or the stock goes nowhere. Contents 1. The

Grouped bar chart showing cumulative abnormal returns by beat streak length at T+1, T+5, T+21, and T+63 windows for Taiwanese stocks 2012-2025.

earnings

Beat Streaks in Taiwan: +1.79% T+21 in a Tech-Heavy Market

Taiwan shows delayed post-announcement drift that builds to +1.79% by day 21. Streak 3 reaches +2.60% T+21 and +2.75% T+63. 3,721 events from 2012-2025. The muted day-1 reaction followed by strong drift suggests gradual information incorporation.

Grouped bar chart showing cumulative abnormal returns by beat streak length at T+1, T+5, T+21, and T+63 windows for Japanese JPX stocks 2009-2025.

earnings

Beat Streaks in Japan: Strongest Immediate Reaction Globally (+0.90% T+1)

Japan shows the highest T+1 abnormal return of any exchange globally. 5,461 events on JPX from 2009-2025. Streak 3 reaches +2.35% at T+63. The pattern is consistent with Japan's concentrated analyst coverage and slower information diffusion.

event-study

Post-Earnings Drift in Taiwan: The Miss Penalty Is the Signal

16,497 earnings events on the Taiwan Stock Exchange (2000-2025). Misses drift -1.60% vs TAIEX at T+63 (t=-9.30). Q1 worst misses drop -2.89%. Q5-Q1 spread: +4.37pp, 2nd highest globally. Beats: +0.89% (t=+4.27). Next-day close entry.

Post-Earnings Drift in China: One-Sided Signal on A-Shares

event-study

Post-Earnings Drift in China: Everything Drifts Up on A-Shares

20,319 earnings events across Shenzhen and Shanghai (2000-2025). Beats drift +1.78% vs SSE Composite at T+63 (t=+8.18). Misses drift +0.74% (t=+4.67, also significant). Both sides positive. Q5-Q1 spread: +2.03pp. Next-day close entry.

Cumulative abnormal return (CAR) for TSX earnings beats vs misses at T+63 trading days vs TSX Composite benchmark

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Post-Earnings Drift in Canada: A Modest but Real Signal on the TSX

20,168 earnings events on the TSX (2000-2025). Beats drift +1.13% vs TSX Composite at T+63 (t=+6.98). Misses drift -0.34% (t=-1.87, not significant). Q5-Q1 spread: +2.44pp. Next-day close entry.

Bar chart showing beats CAR at T+63 across 16 global exchanges, sorted by magnitude

event-study

Post-Earnings Drift Across 16 Markets: A Global Event Study

PEAD event study on 16 exchanges with MOC entry and local benchmarks. Q5-Q1 positive on 15 of 16. India leads at +5.17pp. US beats don't drift post-entry (-0.40%). Emerging markets show real drift. Developed markets don't.

Cumulative abnormal return (CAR) for earnings beats vs misses on BSE+NSE at T+1, T+5, T+21, T+63 trading days

event-study

Post-Earnings Drift in India: The Strongest PEAD Signal in the World

Indian stocks drift +2.89% vs the Sensex after positive earnings surprises over 63 trading days (next-day close entry). Q5-Q1 spread: +5.17pp. In a world where US beats show no post-entry drift, India's signal is the strongest globally.

Cumulative abnormal return (CAR) for earnings beats vs misses at T+1, T+5, T+21, T+63 trading days

event-study

Post-Earnings Announcement Drift: 25 Years of US Data

We analyzed 165,723 earnings events from 2000-2025 on NYSE/NASDAQ/AMEX with next-day close entry. Beats drift -0.40% vs SPY at T+63. Misses decline -0.95%. Q5-Q1 spread: +1.18pp. The announcement-day reaction is the bulk of PEAD. Post-entry, the US signal is a miss-avoidance tool.

Cumulative abnormal return (CAR) for JPX earnings beats vs misses at T+1, T+5, T+21, T+63 trading days vs EWJ benchmark

event-study

Post-Earnings Drift in Japan: The Miss Signal Is What Survives

With MOC entry and the Nikkei as benchmark, Japan's beat drift vanishes (-0.26%, not significant). Misses still decline -0.86% (t=-5.35). Q5-Q1: +1.20pp. The relative signal survives, but the tradeable edge is miss-avoidance.