DCF
We ran a Gordon Growth DCF screen with quality filters on 25 years of Canadian TSX data. 9.32% CAGR, 1.68% annual excess return, and a -4.31% down capture — when the S&P 500 fell, Canadian DCF stocks gained on average, driven by resource sector dynamics in the early 2000s.
DCF
We ran the same DCF Threshold screen on 13 global stock exchanges. Seven markets beat SPY. Six underperformed. The dividing line follows a consistent geographic pattern — Western markets work, most Asian markets don't — and the structural reasons are documented.
DCF
We ran a Gordon Growth DCF screen with quality filters on 25 years of Indian BSE/NSE data. No qualifying stocks 2000–2004. From 2005, the strategy returned 11.12% CAGR vs 7.64% SPY, with explosive swing years — 2007 (+85%), 2009 (+84%), 2022 (+36%) — alongside a -61% max drawdown.
DCF
We ran a Gordon Growth DCF screen with quality filters on 25 years of London Stock Exchange data. No qualifying stocks 2000–2003. From 2004, 9.10% CAGR vs 7.64% SPY, with strong recovery years in 2006, 2009, 2012, and 2021 — and a -36% annual gap in 2014 driven by the energy sector collapse.
DCF
We added ROE, D/E, and OCF quality filters to a Gordon Growth DCF screen and tested it on 25 years of US stocks. The result was 11.25% CAGR vs 7.64% SPY, 3.60% annual excess return, and 38% down capture — the strategy captures only 38 cents of every dollar the market loses.
value investing
Sweden produced 14.57% CAGR from the DCF discount strategy vs 2.40% for the OMX Stockholm 30 (price-only). The +12.17% headline excess narrows to roughly +9 points after dividend adjustment, still the strongest local-benchmark result in our global comparison.
value investing
Same DCF screen across 14 global exchanges with local benchmarks. Sweden led on every metric (+12.17% vs OMXS30, Sharpe 0.579). Germany +7.89% vs DAX, Canada +7.40% vs TSX. India trailed its Sensex. Universe construction matters as much as the signal.
value investing
We previously published a DCF discount backtest for Australian stocks reporting 6.08% CAGR. The result was partly an artifact of broken split-adjusted prices in our upstream FMP data (314 ASX symbols affected). We retract the original number and explain why.
value investing
We previously published a DCF discount backtest for Brazilian stocks reporting 18.05% CAGR. The headline was substantially inflated by broken split-adjusted prices in our upstream FMP data. We retract the original number and explain why.
value investing
We screened every US stock for discount to intrinsic value using a Gordon Growth Model and backtested from 2000 to 2025. The strategy returned 7.91% CAGR vs 7.33% for SPY, +0.58% annual excess. A thin edge with deeper drawdowns and worse risk-adjusted returns than the index.