analyst ratings - Ceta Research

Grouped bar chart showing cumulative abnormal returns by upgrade cluster size (small, medium, large) at T+1, T+5, T+21, and T+63 windows. US exchanges, 2019-2025.

analyst ratings

Analyst Upgrade Clusters: The Signal Is at 3 Months, Not 3 Weeks

We tested analyst upgrade clusters on US exchanges from 2019-2025 with next-day MOC execution. The 3-week move fails its own direction test: downgrade clusters beat the market too (+1.480% vs +0.764%). The surviving signal is at T+63, led by medium clusters at +1.631%.

Horizontal bar chart of T+1 abnormal returns by exchange for analyst upgrade cluster events (12 exchanges with 50+ events), sorted by magnitude.

analyst ratings

Analyst Upgrade Clusters Across 14 Markets: One Signal Survives the Direction Test

We tested analyst upgrade clusters on 14 exchanges with next-day MOC execution. No immediate alpha, and the US 3-week window fails the direction test: downgrades beat the index too. What survives is US T+63. UK, Canada and Taiwan look strong but have too few downgrades to test.

Analyst revision CAR at T+63 on XETRA split by company domicile. US-domiciled listings gain 1.48% after upgrades and 0.65% after downgrades against the DAX. German companies fall after both.

analyst ratings

The German Analyst Upgrade Drift Was Netflix and Apple

We reported that German stocks drift +1.63% above the DAX after analyst upgrades. Then we checked the universe: only 1.5% of the events were German companies. 88% were US mega-caps' Frankfurt listings scored against a German index, and they drifted up after downgrades too. This is the correction.

CAR after analyst upgrades on US stocks. Clustered upgrades reach +0.31% at T+21. Single upgrades fall to -0.47%. Downgrades -0.53% at T+63. All measured from next-day-close entry.

analyst ratings

Do Analyst Upgrades Actually Move Stock Prices? We Measured 61,410 of Them

We ran an event study on 61,410 analyst upgrades on US stocks, 2012 to 2025. The move happens on announcement day. What survives needs no benchmark: one month on, stocks upgraded by two or more firms are up 1.82% against 1.05% for single-analyst upgrades. A 0.77 point gap.

Share of analyst events by company domicile on four exchanges, and the CAR for US-domiciled listings after upgrades and after downgrades against each local index.

analyst ratings

We Found Analyst Upgrade Drift in Four Markets. Three of Them Were an Artifact.

We measured 180,658 analyst revisions across five markets and found European upgrade drift that looked strong. It was foreign secondary listings scored against a local index: XETRA is 88% US-domiciled, the LSE 86%. The tell was that downgraded stocks also beat the index.

Analyst revision CAR at T+63 on the LSE split by company domicile. US-domiciled listings gain after both upgrades and downgrades against the FTSE 100.

analyst ratings

The UK Analyst Upgrade Drift Was Mostly American Companies

We reported +1.09% upgrade drift against the FTSE 100 on LSE stocks. Then we checked the universe: 85.7% of the events are US-domiciled companies and only 6.2% are British. For UK companies the one-month drift is 0.008%, which is zero. This is the correction.