Building CetaResearch. Data analysis for policy, research, and startups.
EV/EBITDA
We tested a sector-relative EV/EBITDA screen on 25 years of US stock data. When a profitable company's EV/EBITDA falls 30%+ below its sector peers, it tends to mean-revert. 12.34% CAGR vs 7.64% for SPY, with 62.9% down capture and zero cash periods across 25 years.
UK stocks
We backtested a sector-relative EV/EBITDA screen on 25 years of UK stock data (LSE). 10.35% CAGR vs 7.64% for SPY, zero cash periods, and a max drawdown of -31.12%. The signal worked every year on the LSE — consistent, not spectacular.
Switzerland stocks
We backtested sector-relative EV/EBITDA on 23 years of Swiss data (SIX). 9.32% CAGR vs 7.64% SPY, but the real story is the downside protection: 35.3% down capture, MaxDD -29.61%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.467, matching the US on risk-adjusted terms with a 15-stock portfolio.
India stocks
We backtested a sector-relative EV/EBITDA screen on 20 years of Indian stock data (BSE+NSE). 11.18% CAGR vs 7.64% for SPY, +3.53% excess, but -54.88% max drawdown. The strategy works in India when invested, but five early cash periods and severe volatility are the honest trade-off.
Germany stocks
We backtested sector-relative EV/EBITDA on 25 years of German stocks (XETRA). 8.60% CAGR vs 7.64% SPY, zero cash periods across 25 years. Win rate is only 48% but the big alpha years (2000: +48% excess, 2005: +30%, 2010: +23%) make the long-run case.
China stocks
We backtested sector-relative EV/EBITDA on 25 years of China A-share data (SHZ+SHH). The signal fires every year — but -3.66% annual lag vs SPY and -64.54% max drawdown tell the story. Sector-relative discounts in China don''t close on value logic; they follow policy cycles.
Canada stocks
We backtested sector-relative EV/EBITDA on 24 years of Canadian stocks (TSX). The result is honest: 8.42% CAGR vs 7.64% SPY (+0.78%), but max drawdown of -44.68% is worse than the index. The signal works when sector discounts have a catalyst. In Canada's resource-heavy TSX, they often don't.
P/E mean reversion
We tested a sector-relative P/E mean reversion screen on 25 years of US stock data. Buy quality stocks trading 40%+ below their sector''s median P/E. The strategy returned 9.69% annually vs 7.64% for SPY, with 2.05% excess return and zero cash periods across 25 years.
P/E mean reversion
We tested a sector-relative P/E mean reversion screen on 25 years of UK stock data. Stocks trading at a 40%+ discount to sector peers, filtered for quality, returned 11.81% CAGR vs 7.64% for the S&P 500 — the highest excess return of any exchange tested. Down capture: 42%.
GARP
We ran the GARP strategy on 17 stock exchanges from 2000 to 2025. The S&P 500 returned 8.01%. One market outperformed. Sixteen didn''t. India is the exception. Here''s the full comparison.
GARP
We ran the Growth at a Reasonable Price strategy on all US stocks from 2000 to 2025. 7.12% CAGR vs 8.01% for the S&P 500. The screen was fully invested every quarter. It still lost.
GARP
We tested Peter Lynch''s GARP strategy on BSE + NSE stocks from 2000 to 2025. India is the only market in our 17-exchange test where GARP outperforms. 11.12% CAGR, 130% up capture, 85% down capture.